Examples
Examples
Try the starting example
- Deck cards
- 10
- Target cards in original deck
- 3
- Full hand size
- 3
- Minimum targets to keep a hand
- 1
- One full-hand redraw policy
- reshuffle-each
- Keep-condition probability on first hand
- 0.708333
- Keep-condition probability after at most one redraw
- 0.914931
- Expected full hands examined
- 1.291667
Try another scenario
- Deck cards
- 10
- Target cards in original deck
- 3
- Full hand size
- 3
- Minimum targets to keep a hand
- 1
- One full-hand redraw policy
- set-aside-misses
- Keep-condition probability on first hand
- 0.708333
- Keep-condition probability after at most one redraw
- 0.966667
- Expected full hands examined
- 1.291667
Calculation method
Calculation method
Keep-condition probability on first hand
Hypergeometric probability of at least the entered keep threshold.
Keep-condition probability after at most one redraw
Keep a successful first hand; otherwise redraw the entire hand once, either reshuffling to original deck or setting first-hand cards aside. Sum every failed first-hand target count explicitly.
Expected full hands examined
One plus first-hand failure probability; a successful initial hand is not redrawn.
Symbols and units
- a
- Deck cards
- b
- Target cards in original deck
- c
- Full hand size
- d
- Minimum targets to keep a hand
- e
- One full-hand redraw policy
Use the units shown. A list keeps the order in which you enter its values. The symbol ^ means “raised to the power of”.
Assumptions & limits
Assumptions & limits
- Exactly one optional full-hand mulligan under the displayed policy. Set-aside mode excludes every first-hand card on redraw, including targets in a failed keep condition. No bottoming, partial retention or extra mulligans are inferred.
Are these inputs private?
These calculations run in your browser. A shared link contains the values you choose to share. Only questions submitted to the separate AI finder are sent to OpenAI.
Further reading
Background reading; this does not imply endorsement or independent review of SumFizz.