Examples
Examples
Try the starting example
- Independent per-attempt drops: ID, probability of one unit, target units
- A,0.5,1 B,0.5,1
- Attempts per hour, supplied constant rate
- 120
- Completed-attempt count for probability query
- 3
- Expected attempts until every supplied target is met
- 2.666667
- Expected elapsed minutes at supplied attempt rate
- 1.333333
- Probability all targets met within queried attempts
- 0.765625
- Modeled deficit-state capacity
- 4
Try another scenario
- Independent per-attempt drops: ID, probability of one unit, target units
- A,0.5,2 B,0.5,1
- Attempts per hour, supplied constant rate
- 120
- Completed-attempt count for probability query
- 3
- Expected attempts until every supplied target is met
- 4.222222
- Expected elapsed minutes at supplied attempt rate
- 2.111111
- Probability all targets met within queried attempts
- 0.4375
- Modeled deficit-state capacity
- 6
Calculation method
Calculation method
Expected attempts until every supplied target is met
Solve monotone remaining-target states: E=(1+sum(probability of advancing transition×E[next]))/probability of any advancement, accounting for simultaneous independent drops.
Expected elapsed minutes at supplied attempt rate
Expected attempts×60/attempts per hour; an impossible positive target has infinite expectation.
Probability all targets met within queried attempts
For each item use an exact binomial success-count tail, then multiply independent per-item completion probabilities.
Modeled deficit-state capacity
Product(target count+1), an explicit bounded model size, not the number of attempts.
Symbols and units
- a
- Independent per-attempt drops: ID, probability of one unit, target units
- b
- Attempts per hour, supplied constant rate
- c
- Completed-attempt count for probability query
Use the units shown. A list keeps the order in which you enter its values. The symbol ^ means “raised to the power of”.
Calculation steps and notation
sum(list) adds all entries in the list.
Assumptions & limits
Assumptions & limits
- Independent Bernoulli drops for each item on every identical attempt, allowing multiple different items on the same attempt. Target counts are fixed; no pity system, mutually exclusive drops, changing rates or game-service requests are inferred.
Are these inputs private?
These calculations run in your browser. A shared link contains the values you choose to share. Only questions submitted to the separate AI finder are sent to OpenAI.
Further reading
Background reading; this does not imply endorsement or independent review of SumFizz.