Hotel independent single-room show scenario calculator

Calculate room-overflow probability and expected overflow rooms with your own figures.

Your numbers

Use the units shown. Results update as you change valid inputs.

Choose the currency for these amounts. Changing it keeps your numbers and does not convert exchange rates.

Use room-overflow probability and expected overflow rooms to compare changes to your inputs. The method and limits below explain the scope.

Examples

Examples

Try the starting example

Booking show probabilities
0.8,0.9,0.6
Available rooms (count)
2
Relocation cost (USD/room)
150
Room-overflow probability
0.432
Expected overflow rooms
0.432
Expected relocation scenario cost (USD)
$64.80
Attendance distribution (JSON)
[0.008,0.116,0.444,0.432]

Try another scenario

Booking show probabilities
0.9,0.9,0.8,0.5
Available rooms (count)
3
Relocation cost (USD/room)
200
Room-overflow probability
0.324
Expected overflow rooms
0.324
Expected relocation scenario cost (USD)
$64.80
Attendance distribution (JSON)
[0.001,0.023,0.175,0.477,0.324]
Calculation method

Calculation method

Room-overflow probability

Convolve independent Bernoulli shows; sum probabilities above room count.

Expected overflow rooms

Sum max(0,show count−rooms)×probability.

Expected relocation scenario cost (USD)

Expected overflow rooms×supplied relocation cost.

Attendance distribution (JSON)

Probability of each shown room count, indexed from zero.

Symbols and units
a
Booking show probabilities
b
Available rooms (count)
c
Relocation cost (USD/room)

Use the units shown. A list keeps the order in which you enter its values. The symbol ^ means “raised to the power of”.

Assumptions & limits

Assumptions & limits

  • Independent one-room booking shows, fixed relocation cost per excess occupied room. Parties/correlations unsupported. Supported limits: All numeric inputs and computed intermediates must remain finite. Supported numeric input magnitude is zero or 1e-12 through 1e12 in absolute value; reject values outside this bounded range. All lists/JSON record tables are limited to 100 records unless a stricter bound is stated; reject malformed record arity and wrong member types. All numeric values must be finite. Lists contain at most 100 records; required lists must be nonempty. Rates, probabilities and fractions are entered as fractions, not percentages; fractions must be between 0 and 1. Use a single consistent user-selected currency for all amounts; no exchange-rate conversion.
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