Examples
Examples
Try the starting example
- Days: date, bookings, assumed independent show probability %
- 2026-10-20,10,90 2026-10-21,8,50
- Daily capacity
- 8
- Expected attendance by day
- 2026-10-20: 9; 2026-10-21: 4
- Expected spare capacity by day
- 2026-10-20: -1; 2026-10-21: 4
- Probability of attendance above capacity by day (%)
- 2026-10-20: 73.60989291; 2026-10-21: 0
- Peak expected attendance
- 9
Try another scenario
- Days: date, bookings, assumed independent show probability %
- 2026-10-20,10,90 2026-10-21,8,50
- Daily capacity
- 10
- Expected attendance by day
- 2026-10-20: 9; 2026-10-21: 4
- Expected spare capacity by day
- 2026-10-20: 1; 2026-10-21: 6
- Probability of attendance above capacity by day (%)
- 2026-10-20: 0; 2026-10-21: 0
- Peak expected attendance
- 9
Calculation method
Calculation method
Expected attendance by day
Bookings × assumed show probability.
Expected spare capacity by day
Capacity − expected attendance; negative is a modelled expected excess.
Probability of attendance above capacity by day (%)
Binomial tail P(X>capacity) under independent identical show probabilities, computed by probability-distribution recursion.
Peak expected attendance
Maximum expected attendance across supplied days; not a guaranteed occupancy.
Symbols and units
- a
- Days: date, bookings, assumed independent show probability %
- b
- Daily capacity
Use the units shown. A list keeps the order in which you enter its values. The symbol ^ means “raised to the power of”.
Assumptions & limits
Assumptions & limits
- A hypothetical booking model from your show probabilities. Independence and identical daily probabilities may be unrealistic; no historical model, guarantee, overbooking recommendation or welfare capacity approval is provided.
Are these inputs private?
These calculations run in your browser. A shared link contains the values you choose to share. Only questions submitted to the separate AI finder are sent to OpenAI.
Further reading
OpenStax: arithmetic and geometry ↗
Background reading; this does not imply endorsement or independent review of SumFizz.