Tabletop attack damage expectation calculator

Calculate expected final damage and probability final damage is positive with your own figures.

Your numbers

Use the units shown. Results update as you change valid inputs.

Use expected final damage and probability final damage is positive to compare changes to your inputs. The method and limits below explain the scope.

Examples

Examples

Try the starting example

Normal damage dice
1
Fair damage-die sides
6
Total hit probability INCLUDING critical
0.5
Critical-hit probability, part of total hit
0.1
Critical damage-dice multiplier
2
Flat damage modifier applied once on a hit
2
Flat resistance subtracted on each hit, then clamp at zero
3
Expected final damage
1.6
Probability final damage is positive
0.433333
Final damage probability distribution
0: 0.566666666667; 1: 0.0694444444444; 2: 0.0722222222222; 3: 0.075; 4: 0.0777777777778; 5: 0.0805555555556; 6: 0.0166666666667; 7: 0.0138888888889; 8: 0.0111111111111; 9: 0.00833333333333; 10: 0.00555555555556; 11: 0.00277777777778

Try another scenario

Normal damage dice
1
Fair damage-die sides
6
Total hit probability INCLUDING critical
0.5
Critical-hit probability, part of total hit
0.1
Critical damage-dice multiplier
2
Flat damage modifier applied once on a hit
2
Flat resistance subtracted on each hit, then clamp at zero
0
Expected final damage
3.1
Probability final damage is positive
0.5
Final damage probability distribution
0: 0.5; 3: 0.0666666666667; 4: 0.0694444444444; 5: 0.0722222222222; 6: 0.075; 7: 0.0777777777778; 8: 0.0805555555556; 9: 0.0166666666667; 10: 0.0138888888889; 11: 0.0111111111111; 12: 0.00833333333333; 13: 0.00555555555556; 14: 0.00277777777778
Calculation method

Calculation method

Expected final damage

Mix miss, ordinary hit and critical-hit sum distributions using supplied mutually exclusive probabilities.

Probability final damage is positive

Sum positive final-damage outcomes; zero-damage hits are not counted as positive.

Final damage probability distribution

Miss deals zero. On hits roll normal or multiplied dice, add modifier once, subtract supplied flat resistance, then clamp at zero.

Symbols and units
a
Normal damage dice
b
Fair damage-die sides
c
Total hit probability INCLUDING critical
d
Critical-hit probability, part of total hit
e
Critical damage-dice multiplier
f
Flat damage modifier applied once on a hit
g
Flat resistance subtracted on each hit, then clamp at zero

Use the units shown. A list keeps the order in which you enter its values. The symbol ^ means “raised to the power of”.

Assumptions & limits

Assumptions & limits

  • A supplied tabletop damage model with flat resistance and critical dice multiplication. Critical chance is included within total hit chance; no armor, saving throws, vulnerabilities, half damage or named-game house rules are inferred.
Are these inputs private?

These calculations run in your browser. A shared link contains the values you choose to share. Only questions submitted to the separate AI finder are sent to OpenAI.

Further reading

OpenStax: finite probability and sampling without replacement; rules are explicit in each worksheet ↗

Background reading; this does not imply endorsement or independent review of SumFizz.

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