THE NUMBERS, EXPLAINED
How to use this calculator.
Probabilities and refund terms are supplied, not weather forecasts or legal advice.
Start with your inputs
Enter weather scenario probabilities (%), gross booked revenue by scenario (currency), refunds by scenario (currency), operating and cancellation costs by scenario (currency). Keep amounts in the units shown on each field. The example is a starting point, not a recommended value.
| Input | Example value |
|---|---|
| Weather scenario probabilities (%) | 75,25 |
| Gross booked revenue by scenario (currency) | 1000,1000 |
| Refunds by scenario (currency) | 0,1000 |
| Operating and cancellation costs by scenario (currency) | 600,100 |
A worked example
With the example inputs above, net contribution by scenario (currency) is 400, -100. Change the inputs to explore your own scenario.
| Result | Example answer |
|---|---|
| Net contribution by scenario (currency) | 400, -100 |
| Probability-weighted contribution (currency) | 275 |
| Expected refunds (currency) | 250 |
How this is calculated
Net contribution by scenario (currency)
Deduct refunds and scenario-specific costs.
Probability-weighted contribution (currency)
Weight scenario contributions by user probabilities.
Expected refunds (currency)
Weight refunds by each scenario probability.
Symbols and units
- a
- Weather scenario probabilities (%)
- b
- Gross booked revenue by scenario (currency)
- c
- Refunds by scenario (currency)
- d
- Operating and cancellation costs by scenario (currency)
Use the units shown. A list keeps the order in which you enter its values. The symbol ^ means “raised to the power of”.
Assumptions and limits
Probabilities and refund terms are supplied, not weather forecasts or legal advice.
Calculations use the values you enter. Blank or invalid inputs show an error instead of silently substituting zero. Results are displayed to useful precision; calculations retain the underlying numeric precision.
Questions about this tool
What does the result tell me?
Net contribution by scenario (currency); Probability-weighted contribution (currency); Expected refunds (currency). The result applies to the method and inputs described above. Check the units and assumptions before using it in a decision.
Why might another calculator differ?
Differences in units, rounding, timing or model definitions can produce different answers. Compare the input definitions and the method, rather than only the final number. For this tool: Probabilities and refund terms are supplied, not weather forecasts or legal advice.
Are my inputs stored or sent to AI?
Calculations on this page happen in your browser. The separate AI question finder sends its submitted conversation to OpenAI; these calculator fields are not sent. Favourites and recent tool names are stored locally. A shared link contains the inputs you choose to include.
Further reading
OpenStax: Describe and Identify Cost Drivers ↗
Background reading; this does not imply endorsement or independent review of SumFizz.
Review status
Software example and browser checks are recorded in our quality report. No external expert review is claimed. Created with coding assistance; calculations run as ordinary browser code.
Read the quality report →