Simpson’s paradox
Better in both groups. Worse overall?
Playback is compressed; model values are shown separately.
Make a prediction
Which campaign has the higher combined success rate?
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How it works & assumptions
A succeeds for 80% of its easy group and 30% of its hard group. B succeeds for 70% and 20%. Weight each rate by that campaign’s own group mix.
Synthetic campaign data; fixed group rates. Combining differently weighted groups can reverse the ranking.
References: SticiGui: Experiments, Simpson's Paradox
This is an ideal mathematical model, not a measurement or a forecast.