Blackjack dealer outcome explorer calculator

Calculate dealer terminal outcome distribution and dealer bust probability with your own figures.

Your numbers

Use the units shown. Results update as you change valid inputs.

Use dealer terminal outcome distribution and dealer bust probability to compare changes to your inputs. The method and limits below explain the scope.

Examples

Examples

Try the starting example

Remaining shoe AFTER removing known upcard: rank A or 2–10, card count; combine ten/J/Q/K
2,1 7,1 10,1
Known upcard A or 2–10
10
Dealer soft-17 rule
stand-soft-17
Dealer terminal outcome distribution
17: 0.333333333333; 18: 0; 19: 0.166666666667; 20: 0.333333333333; 21: 0; blackjack: 0; bust: 0.166666666667; exhausted: 0
Dealer bust probability
0.166667
Dealer natural blackjack probability
0
Probability shoe is exhausted before standing/busting
0

Try another scenario

Remaining shoe AFTER removing known upcard: rank A or 2–10, card count; combine ten/J/Q/K
2,1 7,1 10,1
Known upcard A or 2–10
A
Dealer soft-17 rule
stand-soft-17
Dealer terminal outcome distribution
17: 0; 18: 0.333333333333; 19: 0; 20: 0.333333333333; 21: 0; blackjack: 0.333333333333; bust: 0; exhausted: 0
Dealer bust probability
0
Dealer natural blackjack probability
0.333333
Probability shoe is exhausted before standing/busting
0
Calculation method

Calculation method

Dealer terminal outcome distribution

Recursively draw from supplied finite remaining rank counts without replacement, memoizing states. Ace may count eleven if it avoids bust.

Dealer bust probability

Probability hard total exceeds 21.

Dealer natural blackjack probability

Exactly two cards totaling 21; later 21 is separately classified.

Probability shoe is exhausted before standing/busting

If no cards remain while the stated dealer rule requires a draw, expose exhausted rather than inventing a stand.

Symbols and units
a
Remaining shoe AFTER removing known upcard: rank A or 2–10, card count; combine ten/J/Q/K
b
Known upcard A or 2–10
c
Dealer soft-17 rule

Use the units shown. A list keeps the order in which you enter its values. The symbol ^ means “raised to the power of”.

Assumptions & limits

Assumptions & limits

  • A finite supplied-shoe dealer model, with the upcard already removed from remaining inventory and no hole-card peek conditioning. It does not model player strategy, payouts, table surveillance or actual shuffled-card randomness.
Are these inputs private?

These calculations run in your browser. A shared link contains the values you choose to share. Only questions submitted to the separate AI finder are sent to OpenAI.

Further reading

OpenStax: finite probability and sampling without replacement; rules are explicit in each worksheet ↗

Background reading; this does not imply endorsement or independent review of SumFizz.

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