Bus transfer connection reliability calculator

Calculate observed success fraction and connection margins with your own figures.

Your numbers

Use the units shown. Results update as you change valid inputs.

Use observed success fraction and connection margins to compare changes to your inputs. The method and limits below explain the scope.

Examples

Examples

Try the starting example

Observed feeder arrival times (minutes)
50,55,58,62
Connecting departure (minute)
60
Walking plus boarding buffer (minutes)
5
Observed success fraction
0.5
Connection margins (minutes, JSON)
[5,0,-3,-7]

Try another scenario

Observed feeder arrival times (minutes)
48,52,57
Connecting departure (minute)
58
Walking plus boarding buffer (minutes)
4
Observed success fraction
0.666667
Connection margins (minutes, JSON)
[6,2,-3]
Calculation method

Calculation method

Observed success fraction

Count(arrival+buffer<=departure)/sample count.

Connection margins (minutes, JSON)

Departure−arrival−buffer for each observation.

Symbols and units
a
Observed feeder arrival times (minutes)
b
Connecting departure (minute)
c
Walking plus boarding buffer (minutes)

Use the units shown. A list keeps the order in which you enter its values. The symbol ^ means “raised to the power of”.

Assumptions & limits

Assumptions & limits

  • Empirical connection outcomes from equally weighted observed samples; no future reliability guarantee. Supported limits: All numeric inputs and computed intermediates must remain finite. Supported numeric input magnitude is zero or 1e-12 through 1e12 in absolute value; reject values outside this bounded range. All lists/JSON record tables are limited to 100 records unless a stricter bound is stated; reject malformed record arity and wrong member types. All numeric values must be finite. Lists contain at most 100 records; required lists must be nonempty. Rates, probabilities and fractions are entered as fractions, not percentages; fractions must be between 0 and 1. Use a single consistent user-selected currency for all amounts; no exchange-rate conversion.
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