Lottery match distribution calculator

Calculate probability both supplied match thresholds are met and expected main matches with your own figures.

Your numbers

Use the units shown. Results update as you change valid inputs.

Use probability both supplied match thresholds are met and expected main matches to compare changes to your inputs. The method and limits below explain the scope.

Examples

Examples

Try the starting example

Pool size
10
Main numbers drawn without replacement
4
Unique ticket selections
3
Bonus numbers drawn from remaining pool
1
Minimum main matches for queried event
2
Minimum bonus matches for queried event
1
Probability both supplied match thresholds are met
0.05
Expected main matches
1.2
Expected bonus matches
0.3
Joint main/bonus match distribution
main=0/bonus=0: 0.0833333333333; main=0/bonus=1: 0.0833333333333; main=1/bonus=0: 0.333333333333; main=1/bonus=1: 0.166666666667; main=2/bonus=0: 0.25; main=2/bonus=1: 0.05; main=3/bonus=0: 0.0333333333333; main=3/bonus=1: 0

Try another scenario

Pool size
10
Main numbers drawn without replacement
4
Unique ticket selections
3
Bonus numbers drawn from remaining pool
1
Minimum main matches for queried event
3
Minimum bonus matches for queried event
0
Probability both supplied match thresholds are met
0.033333
Expected main matches
1.2
Expected bonus matches
0.3
Joint main/bonus match distribution
main=0/bonus=0: 0.0833333333333; main=0/bonus=1: 0.0833333333333; main=1/bonus=0: 0.333333333333; main=1/bonus=1: 0.166666666667; main=2/bonus=0: 0.25; main=2/bonus=1: 0.05; main=3/bonus=0: 0.0333333333333; main=3/bonus=1: 0
Calculation method

Calculation method

Probability both supplied match thresholds are met

Sum exact disjoint main/bonus match-cell counts meeting both supplied thresholds.

Expected main matches

Main draw count×ticket selections/pool.

Expected bonus matches

Bonus draw count×ticket selections/pool; bonus is sampled from numbers not in main draw.

Joint main/bonus match distribution

For each main match count, draw remaining ticket/non-ticket bonus choices from the remaining pool and divide by choose(pool,main)×choose(pool−main,bonus).

Symbols and units
a
Pool size
b
Main numbers drawn without replacement
c
Unique ticket selections
d
Bonus numbers drawn from remaining pool
e
Minimum main matches for queried event
f
Minimum bonus matches for queried event

Use the units shown. A list keeps the order in which you enter its values. The symbol ^ means “raised to the power of”.

Assumptions & limits

Assumptions & limits

  • A uniform finite-pool main draw followed by disjoint bonus draws, not a named lottery’s prize rules. Ticket uniqueness and thresholds are supplied; no payouts, tickets or future draws are predicted.
Are these inputs private?

These calculations run in your browser. A shared link contains the values you choose to share. Only questions submitted to the separate AI finder are sent to OpenAI.

Further reading

OpenStax: finite probability and sampling without replacement; rules are explicit in each worksheet ↗

Background reading; this does not imply endorsement or independent review of SumFizz.

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