Orchard yield projection calculator

Calculate sample-mean projected gross fruit mass and expected saleable mass with your own figures.

Your numbers

Use the units shown. Results update as you change valid inputs.

Use sample-mean projected gross fruit mass and expected saleable mass to compare changes to your inputs. The method and limits below explain the scope.

Examples

Examples

Try the starting example

Trees represented
100
Fruit counts on sampled trees
80,100,120
Masses of sampled fruit (g)
150,200,250
Expected loss (%)
10
Lower scenario loss (%)
5
Upper scenario loss (%)
20
Sample-mean projected gross fruit mass (kg)
2000
Expected saleable mass (kg)
1800
Scenario minimum saleable mass (kg)
1600
Scenario maximum saleable mass (kg)
1900
Mean sampled fruit count per tree
100

Try another scenario

Trees represented
10
Fruit counts on sampled trees
50,50
Masses of sampled fruit (g)
100,100
Expected loss (%)
0
Lower scenario loss (%)
0
Upper scenario loss (%)
10
Sample-mean projected gross fruit mass (kg)
50
Expected saleable mass (kg)
50
Scenario minimum saleable mass (kg)
45
Scenario maximum saleable mass (kg)
50
Mean sampled fruit count per tree
50
Calculation method

Calculation method

Sample-mean projected gross fruit mass (kg)

Tree count × mean sampled fruit count × mean sampled fruit mass / 1000.

Expected saleable mass (kg)

Gross projection × (1 − expected loss/100).

Scenario minimum saleable mass (kg)

Gross projection × (1 − upper scenario loss/100).

Scenario maximum saleable mass (kg)

Gross projection × (1 − lower scenario loss/100).

Mean sampled fruit count per tree

Arithmetic mean of entered fruit counts.

Symbols and units
a
Trees represented
b
Fruit counts on sampled trees
c
Masses of sampled fruit (g)
d
Expected loss (%)
e
Lower scenario loss (%)
f
Upper scenario loss (%)

Use the units shown. A list keeps the order in which you enter its values. The symbol ^ means “raised to the power of”.

Assumptions & limits

Assumptions & limits

  • A sample-based arithmetic projection using representative tree counts and fruit masses. Scenario bounds are your selected loss assumptions, not statistical confidence intervals or a harvest guarantee.
Are these inputs private?

These calculations run in your browser. A shared link contains the values you choose to share. Only questions submitted to the separate AI finder are sent to OpenAI.

Further reading

OpenStax: arithmetic and geometry ↗

Background reading; this does not imply endorsement or independent review of SumFizz.

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