Examples
Examples
Try the starting example
- Scenarios: name, total cost $, probability %
- Low,80,50 Mid,120,40 High,200,10
- Existing baseline budget ($)
- 100
- Required probability coverage (%)
- 90
- Smallest scenario cost meeting coverage ($)
- $120.00
- Reserve above baseline ($)
- $20.00
- Actual coverage at selected scenario cost (%)
- 90
- Coverage at existing baseline (%)
- 50
Try another scenario
- Scenarios: name, total cost $, probability %
- Low,80,50 Mid,120,40 High,200,10
- Existing baseline budget ($)
- 100
- Required probability coverage (%)
- 95
- Smallest scenario cost meeting coverage ($)
- $200.00
- Reserve above baseline ($)
- $100.00
- Actual coverage at selected scenario cost (%)
- 100
- Coverage at existing baseline (%)
- 50
Calculation method
Calculation method
Smallest scenario cost meeting coverage ($)
Sort positive-probability costs and select the first whose cumulative mass reaches the requested percentage.
Reserve above baseline ($)
max(0,selected cost−baseline budget).
Actual coverage at selected scenario cost (%)
Sum probability of every cost at or below the selected value, including all equal-cost ties.
Coverage at existing baseline (%)
Sum probability of costs at or below the baseline.
Symbols and units
- a
- Scenarios: name, total cost $, probability %
- b
- Existing baseline budget ($)
- c
- Required probability coverage (%)
Use the units shown. A list keeps the order in which you enter its values. The symbol ^ means “raised to the power of”.
Assumptions & limits
Assumptions & limits
- An exact discrete-scenario percentile under your supplied probabilities, rather than a Monte Carlo forecast. Coverage is conditional on the scenario set and does not include missing risks.
Are these inputs private?
These calculations run in your browser. A shared link contains the values you choose to share. Only questions submitted to the separate AI finder are sent to OpenAI.
Further reading
OpenStax: arithmetic and geometry ↗
Background reading; this does not imply endorsement or independent review of SumFizz.